
2024San Diego
Probability of default model
300 → 10candidate variables cut to the final model
- A logistic-regression model of credit card default. Vintage curves set a 6‑month performance window; roll-rate analysis tracked accounts within it.
- Narrowed the candidate variables with break-and-heal binning, weight of evidence and information value, stepwise regression and cluster analysis.
- Set warning and breach thresholds for ongoing monitoring.
- KS
- 55%
- PSI
- 13%
- MAPE
- 10%




